Texas Democrats are sweeping statewide offices, leaving housing at a crossroads

Texas Democrats are sweeping statewide offices, leaving housing at a crossroads

Texas has enacted some of the most consequential housing reforms under Republican leadership in years, but Tuesday’s historic Democratic sweep in the Lone Star State suddenly opened the door to changes that advocates thought were politically impossible.

“The boundaries have completely changed for low-income households and opportunities for Texans seeking affordability” Texas Housersnonprofit housing advocacy organization, tells Realtor.com®. “What was real 24 hours ago is drastically different than what is real today.”

Those opportunities include more public investment in affordable housing, stronger renter protections and more funding to rebuild homes damaged by natural disasters — things the organization hopes the incoming administration will advance.

But the state’s home building industry has spent years trying to push an agenda forward with officials from both parties.

“Neither D nor R. It’s H for flat”. Scott Normandirector general Texas Builders Associationtold Realtor.com.

After an election shaped by pocketbook concerns, Texas’ new governor will surely be judged on whether Norman can solve ‘H’ – turning the momentum of the nation’s most active homebuilding market into homes that Texans can afford.

Texas housing reform was already gaining momentum

Texas’ Republican-led Legislature had already begun removing barriers to housing construction ahead of Tuesday’s election.

Senate Bill 840for example, it allows developers to convert certain commercial properties into apartments without extensive rezoning.

Since taking effect in September 2025, the law has allowed plans for at least 8,400 apartments, according to a July analysis by the Texas Tribune, citing a coalition of housing reform advocates. That’s about one-fifth of the multifamily units allowed in the state during the period.

That’s an especially remarkable share considering the Lone Star State leads the nation in homebuilding, issuing more permits than any other state and accounting for 14.6% of building permits issued nationwide, according to the latest Affordability and Home Construction Report Cards from Realtor.com.

But according to Norman, it was a bipartisan push by Democratic Gov. Gina Hinojosa helped advance it during his tenure in the state legislature. As a member of the House Land and Resource Management Committee, he voted in favor of moving SB 840 forward.

It’s something Norman hasn’t forgotten, saying during the previous legislative session that he “supports what we’re asking for.” “I’m sure and I know he’s going to take that experience to the governor’s mansion.”

Tray Bates, Vice President of Government Affairs at Texas Realtorsalso sees room for cooperation.

“The main problem is supply,” Bates told Realtor.com. “Texas is adding people faster than it’s adding homes people can afford.”

Both organizations want to continue to ease restrictions on residential development, with Norman seeing an opportunity to address the shortage of skilled construction workers through expanded workforce training.

“The more people we can get on the job, the lower the labor costs,” he says.

After their historic election victories, Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa and US Senator-elect James Talarico celebrated Texas style: raising their glasses in a toast at Whataburger in Austin.Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Where Democrats can take housing policy even further

But Texas’ homebuilding boom has done little to close the gap for the lowest-income renters.

The state faces a shortage of 709,000 affordable rental homes for extremely low-income households. National Low Income Housing Coalition.

Texas Housers argue that insufficient public investment is causing this shortage.

“Texas has relied almost entirely on federal dollars and tax credits to create and maintain affordable housing in our communities,” the organization said. “Available resources are insufficient to meet the need for safe, decent and affordable housing.”

Indeed, only 10.1 million dollars were allocated from the state budget Housing Trust Fund For fiscal years 2026 and 2027. In contrast, the state committed more than $114 million in federal housing tax credits to help finance affordable rental housing in 2026 alone.

The programs serve different purposes, to be sure, but the numbers show just how heavily Texas relies on federal incentives to fund the development of affordable rental housing.

Land Commissioner – elected Ben Flores He sees another opportunity in the nearly 13 million hectares managed by the General Land Office.

“We (sic) keep parcels near growing cities that are sitting vacant,” Flores told Realtor.com. “My team will inventory those parcels and determine whether they can provide housing for teachers, nurses, first responders and working families through long-term leases that keep the land in public hands and still generate revenue for the Permanent School Fund.

“Housing and school funding should not compete,” he said. “That’s right, they support each other.”

Flores intends to prioritize the Houston area and the Rio Grande Valley, where he said rising housing costs are adding to the challenges faced by families recovering from flooding.

It also promises to address delays in the distribution of disaster recovery aid — an issue that Texas Housers say has left some Hurricane Harvey survivors waiting years to recover.

“When the state relies solely on federal dollars, moving through slow, unaccountable systems, the least families wait the longest,” the organization said.

Flores says he will address this challenge by conducting an agency audit every 30 days for the first 90 days, with public progress reports and measurable targets for aid distribution.

“We will review every open recovery program, find out where and why the funds are stuck, and try to get those dollars back to the hurricane survivors,” Flores said. “Apportionment decisions will be made based on need and harm, not politics, and we will publish where the money is going so Texans can see for themselves.”

Tenants could also see a different approach in the incoming administration.

“There is also an urgent need to protect primary tenants,” says Texas Housers, calling for greater transparency about rents among its legislative priorities.

lieutenant gov.-elect Vicky Goodwin suggested property tax benefits For landlords who maintain affordable rents while the attorney general is elected Nathan Johnson a promised 30 day review Consumer protection and competition laws, specifically identifying algorithmic rent assignment as an enforcement concern.

Could the election change who controls the Texas housing market?

Then there are the forces that any state agency can control—forces that Norman argues will be the larger determinants of Texas’ housing future.

“The two things that drive housing growth are population growth and job growth,” he says.

Texas had no shortage of that. The state has added more than 2.6 million residents since 2020. According to figures from the US Census Bureau.

When asked about fears that growth could stall or reverse, Norman responds with enthusiastic optimism that the state’s economic attractiveness will continue to attract households and support construction.

“I’m a bull in Texas,” he says.

But some out-of-state real estate experts are watching for signs that political change could change where affluent residents choose to live.

Miltiadis KastanisMiami Beach Luxury real estate agent with Compasssays that inquiries from Texas shoppers spiked ahead of the election.

“We’ve seen an increase in inquiries from the Texan market,” he says.

Kastanis believes recent political changes could accelerate that interest, particularly among wealthy Texans who are concerned about future changes to the state’s tax climate.

“You’ll see Texans start planning ahead to move into the Florida market,” he says, but he cautions against waiting for a mass exodus or bidding wars during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bates is similarly skeptical that an election will significantly change migration patterns.

“It’s too early to predict migration based on one election,” he says. “Inward migration to Texas was already slowing before Tuesday, with housing costs a major factor.”

And at the intersection of Texas housing policy, it could become the North Star for housing advocates, industry leaders and the incoming administration alike.

“Maybe the policy solutions look a little different depending on who’s in charge,” says Norman, but the more favorable Texas commitment remains the same.

“There’s a lot we can do with new people coming in,” he says.

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